Opinion & Analysis - Is India taking off?
Opinion & Analysis: "Is India taking off?
A collection of articles takes a jab at the question but there are too many imponderables.
Over 40 years ago, the American economic historian W W Rostow defined �take-off� in his book The Stages of Economic Growth as �the interval when the old blocks and resistances to steady growth are finally overcome � The forces making for economic progress � expand and come to dominate the society.
Growth becomes its normal condition�. According to Rostow�s linear stages of economic growth, India should have reached its �maturity,� or the state in which its technological and entrepreneurial skills can provide anything of India�s choosing.
This is the question that two American scholars, Alyssa Ayres and Philip Oldenburg (editors), ask in their anthology, India Briefing: Take-Off at Last?
First, the contents. Apart from the Introduction, which takes an overview of the economic-political-cultural-and-business scenario, the breakdown, chapter-wise, by Indian scholars based in the US or America-returned Indian academics are: “Politics: The BJP Falls from Power” by Niraja Gopal Jayal (JNU); “Indian Economy: New Pathways to Growth and Development” by Isher Ahluwalia (former director and chief executive of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations); “India’s International Relations: The Space for Stability, Space, and Strength” by Amitabh Mattoo (formerly JNU and now vice-chancellor of Jammu University); “The Cultural Background of Hindutva” by Richard Davis (professor of religions, Bard College, New York); “Work and Wealth” by Renana Jhabvala (national coordinator of the Self-Employed Women’s Association); “The Business of Bollywood” by Manjeet Kripalani (Bureau Chief, Business Week); and “Downloading India: A Guide to Online Resources”.
What the contributors have provided is a useful summing up of the present state of play in their respective area studies.
What is of interest is that the editors and contributors address their concerns to the central question of power in the economy, when everything in the world today merges into everything else, politics into economics, economics into sociology and history, and so on, “Economics as a separate science,” as Bertrand Russell said long ago, “is unrealistic and misleading if taken as a guide in practice.
It is one element—a very important element, it is true—in a wider study, the science of power.” Power should therefore be “a recurrent theme in any economic study of a theoretical or applied nature”.
When it all boils down to a question of power, it becomes important to factor in the cultural forces that aid or impede economic growth.
This is especially true of us, where any attempt to modernise is haunted by “the ghost of dead religious beliefs” that have largely been emptied of authentic spirituality.
For instance, in the Hindi belt, where, to quote Marx, “an impoverished present decks itself out in the alluring insignia of a sacred past,” nothing moves without an understanding of the cultural background of different regions.
Two essays deal with what one would call “the cultural theory of economic growth”: the BJP’s fall from power, and Hindutva, which uses culture to explain the economic and political outcomes.
Taken together, they provide useful recaps for someone new to the political scene who would like to know how the “saffronisation of power” developed.
But they do not offer much comment on the essential nature of the BJP and its ideological mentor, the RSS, and its militant Hindutva philosophy. Nor do they explain the reasons for the factionalism within the BJP or how its philosophies would be reconciled with the imperatives of coalition politics.
But all the facts, “who comes, who goes”, are all there, which provide the foundation to delve further into the politics of the BJP and its NDA allies.
Dr Ahluwalia’s economic survey of the last decade examines the origins of the present buoyant optimism.
For a decade, the economy had seen a real growth in GDP of about 6 per cent. Dr Ahluwalia’s hope is that with “the right policy mix” we could take off on a markedly steeper growth path, “something close to 8 per cent.”
This sort of acceleration is necessary to provide opportunities for India’s growing population and faster-growing workforce. During the present decade, in one estimate, India’s labour force will expand by 50 per cent more than all of East Asia’s (including China) put together.
Without further structural reform, such a growth spurt seems unlikely—especially with the kind of attitudes the Left has taken.
Besides, there are many other areas of darkness. It was this “darkness”, especially in rural and small-town India, that cost the BJP its job in the last elections.
As we stand today, there are many imponderables and no one can say with any confidence, “I’ve seen the future and it works.” If we keep tumbling through, that would be enough.
A collection of articles takes a jab at the question but there are too many imponderables.
Over 40 years ago, the American economic historian W W Rostow defined �take-off� in his book The Stages of Economic Growth as �the interval when the old blocks and resistances to steady growth are finally overcome � The forces making for economic progress � expand and come to dominate the society.
Growth becomes its normal condition�. According to Rostow�s linear stages of economic growth, India should have reached its �maturity,� or the state in which its technological and entrepreneurial skills can provide anything of India�s choosing.
This is the question that two American scholars, Alyssa Ayres and Philip Oldenburg (editors), ask in their anthology, India Briefing: Take-Off at Last?
First, the contents. Apart from the Introduction, which takes an overview of the economic-political-cultural-and-business scenario, the breakdown, chapter-wise, by Indian scholars based in the US or America-returned Indian academics are: “Politics: The BJP Falls from Power” by Niraja Gopal Jayal (JNU); “Indian Economy: New Pathways to Growth and Development” by Isher Ahluwalia (former director and chief executive of the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations); “India’s International Relations: The Space for Stability, Space, and Strength” by Amitabh Mattoo (formerly JNU and now vice-chancellor of Jammu University); “The Cultural Background of Hindutva” by Richard Davis (professor of religions, Bard College, New York); “Work and Wealth” by Renana Jhabvala (national coordinator of the Self-Employed Women’s Association); “The Business of Bollywood” by Manjeet Kripalani (Bureau Chief, Business Week); and “Downloading India: A Guide to Online Resources”.
What the contributors have provided is a useful summing up of the present state of play in their respective area studies.
What is of interest is that the editors and contributors address their concerns to the central question of power in the economy, when everything in the world today merges into everything else, politics into economics, economics into sociology and history, and so on, “Economics as a separate science,” as Bertrand Russell said long ago, “is unrealistic and misleading if taken as a guide in practice.
It is one element—a very important element, it is true—in a wider study, the science of power.” Power should therefore be “a recurrent theme in any economic study of a theoretical or applied nature”.
When it all boils down to a question of power, it becomes important to factor in the cultural forces that aid or impede economic growth.
This is especially true of us, where any attempt to modernise is haunted by “the ghost of dead religious beliefs” that have largely been emptied of authentic spirituality.
For instance, in the Hindi belt, where, to quote Marx, “an impoverished present decks itself out in the alluring insignia of a sacred past,” nothing moves without an understanding of the cultural background of different regions.
Two essays deal with what one would call “the cultural theory of economic growth”: the BJP’s fall from power, and Hindutva, which uses culture to explain the economic and political outcomes.
Taken together, they provide useful recaps for someone new to the political scene who would like to know how the “saffronisation of power” developed.
But they do not offer much comment on the essential nature of the BJP and its ideological mentor, the RSS, and its militant Hindutva philosophy. Nor do they explain the reasons for the factionalism within the BJP or how its philosophies would be reconciled with the imperatives of coalition politics.
But all the facts, “who comes, who goes”, are all there, which provide the foundation to delve further into the politics of the BJP and its NDA allies.
Dr Ahluwalia’s economic survey of the last decade examines the origins of the present buoyant optimism.
For a decade, the economy had seen a real growth in GDP of about 6 per cent. Dr Ahluwalia’s hope is that with “the right policy mix” we could take off on a markedly steeper growth path, “something close to 8 per cent.”
This sort of acceleration is necessary to provide opportunities for India’s growing population and faster-growing workforce. During the present decade, in one estimate, India’s labour force will expand by 50 per cent more than all of East Asia’s (including China) put together.
Without further structural reform, such a growth spurt seems unlikely—especially with the kind of attitudes the Left has taken.
Besides, there are many other areas of darkness. It was this “darkness”, especially in rural and small-town India, that cost the BJP its job in the last elections.
As we stand today, there are many imponderables and no one can say with any confidence, “I’ve seen the future and it works.” If we keep tumbling through, that would be enough.
