Group of Seven Club Coming Under Pressure to Expand Its Ranks
Group of Seven Club Coming Under Pressure to Expand Its Ranks
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg)
The Group of Seven industrial nations, a club of the world's wealthiest nations that dates back to the 1970s, meets under mounting pressure to bring its membership up to date to reflect growth of economies such as China and India.
U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, who chairs Friday and Saturday's gathering in London, has invited China, India, Brazil and South Africa to some of the talks amid what a British Treasury official described as a recognition among finance ministers that they need to engage with emerging economies. Former U.S. and U.K. treasury officials and economists from Morgan Stanley and HSBC Holdings Plc say the group's present structure looks increasingly anachronistic, with nations such as Canada and Italy holding on to seats at the table while China, the world's fastest-growing major economy with more than $600 billion of foreign currency reserves, is relegated to guest status.
``The G-7 now includes the world's richest countries, but not necessarily the most important or dynamic countries,'' said Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC, the world's second-largest bank. ``If there is going to be a proper discussion from a trade and capital markets perspective, countries such as China, India, and Brazil need to be included. They will have a bigger and bigger influence on the Western world.''
Officials in some G-7 countries have expressed caution about formalizing the membership of any additional countries. The British official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the G- 7 remains an informal gathering, where issues that affect the richest countries are discussed and that other countries will be invited when there is a need to interact.
`Continuing Outreach'
John Taylor, the U.S. Treasury's undersecretary for international affairs who will represent Treasury Secretary John Snow at this weekend's meeting, said the G-7 is already inviting nations such as China and Brazil to summits as ``part of a continuing outreach.'' After the Sept. 11 attacks, nations with expertise on terrorist financing were invited to the G-7 and last year African nations attended, he said.
G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors will meet their counterparts of India, Brazil, China and South Africa for a working breakfast on Saturday. There will also be an additional G- 7 China lunch during the weekend.
``It's an opportunity for China to be part of the discussions as it's becoming more significant in the world economy,'' said Taylor in an interview.
Chinese Growth
China, the world's seventh-largest economy, may grow 8.5 percent this year, slowing from expansion of 9.5 percent in 2004, the economic forecasting department of the State Information Center said on Monday. On the same day, India revised its economic growth for the last financial year ended March 31, 2004, to 8.5 percent from its previous estimate of 8.2 percent.
The U.S. will grow by 3.3 percent this year, the 12 nations sharing the euro by 1.9 percent and Japan by 2.1 percent, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's latest forecasts published in November.
Richard Portes, director of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, an association of academic and central bank economists headquartered in London, said the G-7 has failed over the last two years to stem the dollar's 18 percent decline because the country which could most influence its future, China, only attended meetings for the first time last October in Washington.
``Global macro imbalances are too important to leave to a body that doesn't decide anything,'' he said.
Louvre Accord
In 1985, the G-7 agreed at the Plaza Hotel in New York to coordinate a decline in the dollar through a series of statements and sales of other currencies. Less than two years later, the G-7 met at the Louvre Palace in Paris and signaled that the exchange rate movement had gone far enough.
``The last time the dollar was out of line with fundamentals, the G-7 was able to solve the problem,'' said Philip Lane, a professor of international macroeconomics at Trinity College, in the University of Dublin. ``Now they can't do anything without China.''
For more than a year, the G-7 has urged China to inject ``flexibility'' into an exchange-rate system that since 1995 has tied the yuan to the dollar. That artificially depresses its value, G-7 officials say, handing Chinese manufacturers an unfair trade advantage.
The Chinese government promised to ``push ahead firmly and steadily'' toward a market-based currency, yet gave no timetable for easing the peg, when it attended the last G-7 meeting in October. Its foreign currency reserves swelled more than 50 percent last year and are now worth almost three-quarters the value of the annual output of Canada, one of the G7 members. Its economy has quadrupled in size since 1978, according to the IMF.
G-7 Plus Four?
Proposals to reform the group range from trimming meetings down to include only representatives from the 12-nation euro region, the U.S., Japan and China to broadening them to include the current G-7 plus up to four countries more.
A report released last year, whose four authors included former U.S. Treasury undersecretary for international affairs Jeffrey Shafer, now at Citigroup Inc., and Nigel Wicks, a former U.K. Treasury official who's now deputy chairman of securities settlement company Euroclear, suggested a two-tier approach.
Wicks, who worked as deputy to five British chancellors of the exchequer at G-7 summits, and Shafer, who has also served at the Federal Reserve, said a new G-4 club, comprising the U.S., Japan, the euro area and China, should deal with global currency issues.
Financial Council
In addition, a broader Council for International Financial and Economic Co-operation should be introduced, the article said, which would represent no more than 15 nations and oversee the global financial system.
``There are new actors coming onto the scene,'' said Wicks, in a telephone interview. ``You can't get away from the fact that China has an enormous effect on the world economy -- it's a significant player on the world markets. I wouldn't rule out India joining the G-4 when it's quite clear that its currency is having the impact on the world that China does.''
The case for expansion or change isn't as clear-cut as some suggest, said Anthony Navaneelan, chairman of the G8 Research Group of the University of Toronto.
Many G-7 countries and particularly the U.S. are concerned that opening the doors to new members will make the meetings, which are informal and don't have their own bureaucracy, unwieldy and potentially confrontational, said Navaleenen.
`Logical Step'
A report by Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roach released in December said the G-7 should be pared back to a G-5 comprising the U.S., the euro region, Japan, the U.K. and China. The ``time is long overdue for a serious revamping of the global policy architecture,'' he said.
Jonathan Story, professor of international political economy at the INSEAD business school in Paris and author of the 2003 book ``China: the Race to Market,'' said change to the G-7 is inevitable. The world's most populous nation is eager to boost its prestige on the international stage and has already begun to flex its muscles by joining the World Trade Organization and boosting regional ties in Asia.
``Joining the G-7 and the G-8 is the next logical step to becoming a key player in the global system,'' said Story. ``They want to play in the top league and India as well.''
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg)
The Group of Seven industrial nations, a club of the world's wealthiest nations that dates back to the 1970s, meets under mounting pressure to bring its membership up to date to reflect growth of economies such as China and India.
U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, who chairs Friday and Saturday's gathering in London, has invited China, India, Brazil and South Africa to some of the talks amid what a British Treasury official described as a recognition among finance ministers that they need to engage with emerging economies. Former U.S. and U.K. treasury officials and economists from Morgan Stanley and HSBC Holdings Plc say the group's present structure looks increasingly anachronistic, with nations such as Canada and Italy holding on to seats at the table while China, the world's fastest-growing major economy with more than $600 billion of foreign currency reserves, is relegated to guest status.
``The G-7 now includes the world's richest countries, but not necessarily the most important or dynamic countries,'' said Stephen King, chief economist at HSBC, the world's second-largest bank. ``If there is going to be a proper discussion from a trade and capital markets perspective, countries such as China, India, and Brazil need to be included. They will have a bigger and bigger influence on the Western world.''
Officials in some G-7 countries have expressed caution about formalizing the membership of any additional countries. The British official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the G- 7 remains an informal gathering, where issues that affect the richest countries are discussed and that other countries will be invited when there is a need to interact.
`Continuing Outreach'
John Taylor, the U.S. Treasury's undersecretary for international affairs who will represent Treasury Secretary John Snow at this weekend's meeting, said the G-7 is already inviting nations such as China and Brazil to summits as ``part of a continuing outreach.'' After the Sept. 11 attacks, nations with expertise on terrorist financing were invited to the G-7 and last year African nations attended, he said.
G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors will meet their counterparts of India, Brazil, China and South Africa for a working breakfast on Saturday. There will also be an additional G- 7 China lunch during the weekend.
``It's an opportunity for China to be part of the discussions as it's becoming more significant in the world economy,'' said Taylor in an interview.
Chinese Growth
China, the world's seventh-largest economy, may grow 8.5 percent this year, slowing from expansion of 9.5 percent in 2004, the economic forecasting department of the State Information Center said on Monday. On the same day, India revised its economic growth for the last financial year ended March 31, 2004, to 8.5 percent from its previous estimate of 8.2 percent.
The U.S. will grow by 3.3 percent this year, the 12 nations sharing the euro by 1.9 percent and Japan by 2.1 percent, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's latest forecasts published in November.
Richard Portes, director of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, an association of academic and central bank economists headquartered in London, said the G-7 has failed over the last two years to stem the dollar's 18 percent decline because the country which could most influence its future, China, only attended meetings for the first time last October in Washington.
``Global macro imbalances are too important to leave to a body that doesn't decide anything,'' he said.
Louvre Accord
In 1985, the G-7 agreed at the Plaza Hotel in New York to coordinate a decline in the dollar through a series of statements and sales of other currencies. Less than two years later, the G-7 met at the Louvre Palace in Paris and signaled that the exchange rate movement had gone far enough.
``The last time the dollar was out of line with fundamentals, the G-7 was able to solve the problem,'' said Philip Lane, a professor of international macroeconomics at Trinity College, in the University of Dublin. ``Now they can't do anything without China.''
For more than a year, the G-7 has urged China to inject ``flexibility'' into an exchange-rate system that since 1995 has tied the yuan to the dollar. That artificially depresses its value, G-7 officials say, handing Chinese manufacturers an unfair trade advantage.
The Chinese government promised to ``push ahead firmly and steadily'' toward a market-based currency, yet gave no timetable for easing the peg, when it attended the last G-7 meeting in October. Its foreign currency reserves swelled more than 50 percent last year and are now worth almost three-quarters the value of the annual output of Canada, one of the G7 members. Its economy has quadrupled in size since 1978, according to the IMF.
G-7 Plus Four?
Proposals to reform the group range from trimming meetings down to include only representatives from the 12-nation euro region, the U.S., Japan and China to broadening them to include the current G-7 plus up to four countries more.
A report released last year, whose four authors included former U.S. Treasury undersecretary for international affairs Jeffrey Shafer, now at Citigroup Inc., and Nigel Wicks, a former U.K. Treasury official who's now deputy chairman of securities settlement company Euroclear, suggested a two-tier approach.
Wicks, who worked as deputy to five British chancellors of the exchequer at G-7 summits, and Shafer, who has also served at the Federal Reserve, said a new G-4 club, comprising the U.S., Japan, the euro area and China, should deal with global currency issues.
Financial Council
In addition, a broader Council for International Financial and Economic Co-operation should be introduced, the article said, which would represent no more than 15 nations and oversee the global financial system.
``There are new actors coming onto the scene,'' said Wicks, in a telephone interview. ``You can't get away from the fact that China has an enormous effect on the world economy -- it's a significant player on the world markets. I wouldn't rule out India joining the G-4 when it's quite clear that its currency is having the impact on the world that China does.''
The case for expansion or change isn't as clear-cut as some suggest, said Anthony Navaneelan, chairman of the G8 Research Group of the University of Toronto.
Many G-7 countries and particularly the U.S. are concerned that opening the doors to new members will make the meetings, which are informal and don't have their own bureaucracy, unwieldy and potentially confrontational, said Navaleenen.
`Logical Step'
A report by Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roach released in December said the G-7 should be pared back to a G-5 comprising the U.S., the euro region, Japan, the U.K. and China. The ``time is long overdue for a serious revamping of the global policy architecture,'' he said.
Jonathan Story, professor of international political economy at the INSEAD business school in Paris and author of the 2003 book ``China: the Race to Market,'' said change to the G-7 is inevitable. The world's most populous nation is eager to boost its prestige on the international stage and has already begun to flex its muscles by joining the World Trade Organization and boosting regional ties in Asia.
``Joining the G-7 and the G-8 is the next logical step to becoming a key player in the global system,'' said Story. ``They want to play in the top league and India as well.''
